New York SBDC Research Network

Obtained From:   Fortune  The U.S. expansion has put millions of people back to work and economists agree that the economy is now at or close to full employment. But what does that mean exactly? When economists talk about full employment, they don’t mean everybody has a job. And they don’t mean that even the rosiest economic health can cut unemployment to zero. If unemployment falls too much, inflation will rise as employers compete to hire workers and push up wages too fast. To economists, full employment means that unemployment has fallen to the lowest possible level that won’t cause inflation. In the U.S., that was thought to be a jobless rate of about 5 percent — above the February rate of 4.1 percent. Is higher inflation therefore on the way? Or is full employment a smaller number than economists supposed?

From the American Institute for Economic Research In an article published in AIER’s January 1996 Research Report, Thomas Lehman wrote, “The present immigration policy of the United States amounts to nothing less than a tariff or barrier to entry on the commodity of labor, and harms American consumers in the same manner as tariffs and trade barriers on other capital or consumer goods.” In over 20 years, the picture has not improved. Immigration laws restrict such voluntary cooperation by preventing some of those best qualified from fulfilling their most useful economic roles. Calls for immigration restrictions have long been a part of American politics. In 2006, 54 Republican and 26 Democratic senators, including Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, voted for the Secure Fence Act, which authorized 700 miles of physical barriers along the U.S.-Mexico border. Still, it is clear from rhetoric and recent executive orders that President Donald Trump intends to restrict immigration more than

From the Bureau of Labor Statistics In the latest recession, employment supported by U.S. consumer spending declined by an estimated 3.2 million jobs between 2007 and 2010, over a third of total job declines during that time frame. Compared with the overall economy, consumer-related employment demonstrated relative resilience, recovering in 2012. Through 2022, consumer spending is projected to support stable job growth with increasing expenditures on labor-intensive services like health care. However, consumer spending and its related employment are projected to grow slower than in the past and at rates similar to the overall economy.

The Office of Advocacy’s Frequently Asked Questions About Small Business , has been newly updated. Reading the FAQ is the best Q&A session about small business that you will ever have. The four-pager is a reference guide to better understand small businesses’ status and role in the economy.

Business Employment Dynamics is a set of statistics generated from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages program. These quarterly data series consist of gross job gains and gross job losses statistics from 1992 forward. These data help to provide a picture of the dynamic state of the labor market. New data from the Business Employment Dynamics program: Entrepreneurship and the U.S. Economy

The folks at the U.S. Census Bureau released a new and improved version of the America’s Economy mobile app this week. The America’s Economy app provides real-time updates for 19 key economic indicators from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Census Bureau, and Bureau of Economic Analysis. Three indicators from BLS were added to the app this week: nonfarm payroll employment, the Producer Price Index, and the Consumer Price Index. These indicators join the unemployment rate and 15 others that were already available. This free app is now available in the App Store and Google Play. For more information, see here .

Source: International Monetary Fund The recovery has suffered new setbacks, and uncertainty weighs heavily on the outlook. A key reason is that policies in the major advanced economies have not rebuilt confidence in medium-term prospects. Tail risks, such as those relating to the viability of the euro area or major U.S. fiscal policy mistakes, continue to preoccupy investors. The World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecast thus sees only a gradual strengthening of activity from the relatively disappointing pace of early 2012. Projected global growth, at 3.3 and 3.6 percent in 2012 and 2013, respectively, is weaker than in the July 2012 WEO Update, which was in turn lower than in the April 2012 WEO (Chapter 1). Output is expected to remain sluggish in advanced economies but still relatively solid in many emerging market and developing economies. Unemployment is likely to stay elevated in many parts of the world. And financial conditions will remain fragile.

The Big Story: What’s the Fed To Do? The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee says the economy is expanding moderately. A former chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation warns that the Fed is fueling a financial bubble. The Fed chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, and a Times columnist, Paul Krugman, battle it out. Josh Bivens says that the United Kingdom’s double-dip recession is proof austerity doesn’t work. Henry Blodget says it’s official: Keynes was right. Peter Diamond and Emmanuel Saez believe that increasing tax rates is part of a sensible deficit-reduction strategy. Jared Bernstein summarizes the economic impact of raising taxes on high-income households. Social Security’s projected shortfall date is moved up to 2033. President Obama slow jams the news. The Economy: The Shale Boom Russell Investments updates its state-of-the-economy dashboard. Among accountants, confidence in the global economy improved substantially in early 2012. USA Today reports that some econo

The Office of Advocacy’s Small Business Profiles for the States and Territories supply data on small businesses in each of the 50 states and the District of Columbia. The publication also provides national-level data and limited data on the U.S. territories. The usefulness of the publication is the great detail it provides about small businesses at the state level. The following topics are covered: the number of firms, demographics of business ownership, small business income, banking, business turnover, industry composition, and employment gains and losses by size of business. 2011 Small Business Profiles for the States and Territories 2011 Small Business Profiles for New York State [PDF]

Explore economic activity in your own community - and across the country. YourEconomy.org is a business census containing more than 24 million active establishments (over 41 million total) providing detailed information about the performance of businesses from a local to a national perspective.

From the executive summary : Innovation and entrepreneurship are crucial for long-term economic development. Over the years, America’s well-being has been furthered by science and technology. Fears set off by the Soviet Union’s 1957 launch of its Sputnik satellite initiated a wave of U.S. investment in science, engineering, aerospace, and technology. Both public and private sector investment created jobs, built industries, fueled innovation, and propelled the U.S. to leadership in a number of different fields. Link to full report (PDF) .

Statistics from 12 economic indicators are now easy to access and easier to use with the new economic indicator database search. With the release of the Quarterly Financial Report for retail trade, all 12 of the Census Bureau's economic indicators are accessible in this user-friendly Internet tool. It provides an easy way to create statistical tables in ASCII text or time series charts in spreadsheet format. Users can select an indicator and choose statistics by item, time period and other dimensions using drop-down menus at http://www.census.gov/econ/currentdata/ .

Entrepreneurship plays a vital role in the growth of the U.S. economy. As the primary source for information on the nation’s labor market, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) collects data on new businesses and job creation. The following highlights from data series produced by BLS Business Employment Dynamics (BED) program provide some insights on the contribution of new and small businesses to the number of businesses and jobs in the economy.

Real gross domestic product increased at an annualized 3.2 percent in the first quarter of 2010, its third quarter of positive growth and a sign of continued economic recovery. Mirroring broad economic trends, overall optimism was higher, with small businesses remaining cautious. Unemployment remained high at 9.7 percent in March, but nonfarm payrolls increased by a net 283,000 jobs in the first quarter. Meanwhile, interest rates remained low, and overall inflation appears to be in check. These and other trends are discussed in the latest update of the Quarterly Indicators: The Economy and Small Business. Quarterly Indicators: The Economy and Small Business is located here (PDF) .

Is the recession over? Unfortunately, no. Are certain aspects of the economy improving? YES! It's Alive! - Consumer spending, the dollar, GDP, and the stock market are all headed higher. The economic story is much more encouraging than it was just one year ago. But that doesn't mean the recovery is complete. Job Market Brightens as U.S. Payrolls Surge in March - The clouds have parted. After more than two years in which more than eight million jobs were lost, the country’s non-farm payrolls surged in March. Employers added 162,000 jobs last month, and employment numbers in the previous two months were revised upward. Nationwide, the unemployment rate held steady at 9.7 percent. To many ordinary, out-of-work Americans, the recovery may finally start to feel real. Recession Survival Guide for Small Business - Even the most successful small business will feel the challenges of the rough economic conditions. This guide presents tips, techniques, and experiences from NYS

There has been a lot of hype in the news lately about whether or not the recession has ending or is in the process of ending. Both President Obama and Ben Bernake, the chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, have stated that they believe the recession to be over, or at least near its end. Whether or not is has ended is certainly up for debate and below are articles from both sides of the argument. Recession 'Likely Over' Conference Board index shows continued economic improvement Job cuts ease in August 86 percent in US believe recession continues Economist sees strong chance of 'double-dip recession'

Most of the news that I read in the Business Review and other business-oriented periodicals and websites detail the extreme losses that many major companies have experienced in their first quarter for 2009. Luckily, the more time that I spend reading up on the Stimulus Act, the economy, and even the recession, the more hope I have that things will turn around, possible even soon. 2009 Industry Outlook - Challenging Times, Emerging Opportunities (Deloitte) Report: National recession to end by Sept. (Albany Business Review) The 2009 Economic Landscape - How the Recession Is Unfolding across Four U.S. Regions (FDIC)

The central office for the NYSSBDC has created a document that can be used as a guide and information source for our clients in today's rough economy. Originally created in July, we recently found it was necessary to update and revise the document. The guide combines facts and figures regarding the current state of the economy as well as tips and stragtegies for surviving in down times. In order to create the document, we visited major and business news websites and found the most recent articles and blogs that are applicable to our client base. We would be happy to send the document to any advisor or NYSSBDC employee who requests a copy. Feel free to call, email, or leave a comment and we will send you what we are calling the "white paper".