Friday, June 24, 2016

Out and Down: Mapping The Impact Of Brexit

From The Economist:
Leaving the EU would trigger a recession and set real GDP back by 6% by 2020. This is one of the key findings from the latest report from the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), Out and down: Mapping the impact of Brexit. The report, which explores a post-Brexit landscape and its impact on key industrial sectors, suggests that the impact on specific UK industries would vary by sector and would be largely negative—although some sectors will find themselves more insulated than others.

Other findings include:

The uncertainty caused by a “Leave” vote would upset consumer and market sentiment, causing a 14-15% devaluation of the pound against the US dollar.
Delayed investment and spending decisions would hit real GDP growth most in 2017.
Weaker trade ties would exacerbate this decline from 2018 onwards, therefore, in real terms the UK economy would be 6%—or £106bn—worse off in 2020.
Pharmaceutical exports, access to medicines and research grants could all be at risk. Any economic downturn would also affect NHS funding.
London’s financial sector could experience a “brain drain”, as European nationals return home.

More from The Economist.

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