Friday, October 05, 2012

Jobs Outlook from the Conference Board

Everyone's reacting to the jobs figures released this morning. I thought I would have a look at the Conference Board to see what they had to say: Press Release / News Job Growth Still Slow, But Not Slowing 05 October, 2012 Comment on U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation Report Kathy Bostjancic, Director of Macroeconomic Analysis, The Conference Board With a gain of 114,000 jobs in September and an upward revision for August, this economy remains on a slow but not slowing growth path. More demand would help, as would fewer ill winds blowing in from a contracting Europe and slower emerging markets. More certainty on taxes post-election would also help. However, right now, slow job and income growth is about all the economy is capable of generating as businesses remain focused on cutting costs. That is the signal from The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the U.S. and is consistent with recent readings on consumer sentiment. Lack of demand plus concern about declining profits makes it difficult to generate new jobs at a faster pace.

I also saw that the New Yorker has also covered it, and broken it down to better understand how the Department of Labor crunches it's numbers: October 5, 2012 Obama, the Job Figures, and the Conspiracy Theorists Posted by John Cassidy Briefly,my understanding is that you need to take a long view to make sense of these figures. Data is coming from household surveys combined with data reported from employers do not share the same ebbs and flows resulting in re-adjusting figures once more information is received. In all, it is a slow recovery, but it is a recovery.

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